Study examines ‘forgotten fifth’ with poor GCSE outcomes
Assessments of children as early as ages 3 and 5 can be predictors of who will go on to fail to secure good GCSE results in English language and maths, according to early findings from a major study. Just under half (48 per cent) of teenagers who fail to secure standard passes in these subjects were identified as falling behind by teachers at age 5. The three-year research project, by Lee Elliot Major, Professor of Social Mobility at the University of Exeter and Dr Sam Parsons from the UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies, was funded by the Monday Charitable Trust.
The researchers used data from the nationally representative longitudinal UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) to investigate the educational trajectories of 11,524 pupils born in England in 2000/1 who went on to take their GCSEs in 2016 or 2017. They found that 1 in 5 (18 per cent) of the teenagers did not achieve a grade 4 in both English language and maths.
For this cohort of children, all teachers in England completed the Early Years Foundation Stage (EYFS) profile in the final term of the Reception Year in Primary School, with the intention of informing Year 1 teachers about each child’s stage of development and learning needs, including expected standards in the EYFS Communication, Literacy and Language (CLL) and Maths Development (MD) scales. Just over a fifth of pupils – 22 per cent- were judged to have not reached the expected level in the CLL and MD scales. After a further 11 years of schooling, just 1 in 3 (34 per cent) of this group of children went on to achieve a grade 4 or higher in both GCSE English language and maths compared to 3 in 4 (74 per cent) of children who were assessed as being at or above the expected level in CLL and MD at age 5. Furthermore, 28 per cent of the teenagers who did not achieve a grade 4 in both English language and maths had been directly assessed as ‘delayed’ in the Bracken assessment of school readiness at age 3.
Even after controlling for various family and individual characteristics, 38 per cent of children assessed as delayed in the Bracken school readiness assessment at age 3 are predicted to be below the expected EYFS CLL and MD levels at age 5. This compares to 14 per cent who were ‘school ready’ at age 3. Similarly, after again controlling for family background and individual characteristics, 27 per cent of children below the expected EYFS CLL and MD levels at age 5 fail to achieve a grade 4 or higher in both English language and maths GCSEs compared to 11 per cent of children at the expected levels at age 5.
The researchers note the importance of controlling for family background and individual characteristics in considering these findings. For example, children assessed as underperforming at age 3, 5 or 16 were twice as likely to be born to a teenage mother and/or to be living with a single parent, and three times more likely to be living in a workless household. Their parents were three times more likely to have no or poor education qualifications (equivalent to low GCSE grades) and were less likely to have attained a degree or higher qualifications. Their home was more likely to be rented, overcrowded or damp and situated in poorer areas. Young children who were not school ready at age 3 were less likely to be female and to be the first-born child, to have never been breastfed, and they were twice as likely to have had a low birthweight. Underachievers at age 5 meanwhile were twice as likely to be younger summer born children in their school year.
Commenting on the findings Professor Elliot Major said: ‘The forgotten fifth of pupils leaving school lacking basic English and maths skills is one of education’s biggest scandals. Our research lays bare the unravelling tragedy for the 100,000 teenagers who each year leave schools without basic skills. Government attempts to address this challenge will fail without high quality support for children during the pre-school years and greater efforts to identify, diagnose and most importantly respond to children falling behind at early stages of schooling. We should also consider introducing a basic threshold qualification for functional literacy and numeracy skills that all school leavers would be expected to pass.’
Dr Parsons said: ‘What is striking about our analysis is that the association between earlier assessments and later outcomes is barely attenuated by the wide range of family background and individual characteristics we are able to include in our analyses. Poor performance in the early years together with socio-economic disadvantage are clear risk factors for poor performance in GCSE English language and maths examinations, which are in turn increasingly crucial for post-16 transitions.’
The working paper, The forgotten fifth: examining the early education trajectories of teenagers who fall below the expected standards in GCSE English language and maths examinations at age 16 will be presented by the research team at the British Educational Research Association’s annual conference this week.