Growth running ahead of government projections
A think tank has warned that the government’s proposed reforms to the SEND system could be at risk from a rush to secure Education Health and Care Plans (EHCPs) before the changes kick in. The warning comes in the first part of the Institute for Government’s (IfG) Public Services Performance Tracker 2026 series, the IfG’s annual data-driven analysis of public services funded by the Nuffield Foundation.
Under the government’s proposed reforms there will be a new legal requirement for schools to create individual support plans (ISPs) for all children with SEND, with only pupils deemed to require the highest level of support then eligible for an EHCP. However, pupils in mainstream schools who already have an EHCP would keep it until the end of the phase they’re in, in effect meaning any pupil currently in Year 4 or above who obtains an EHCP before the end of primary school would keep it until the age of 16. Historically, the share of pupils with EHCPs or equivalents has been stable at around 2.8 per cent, but since 2017 it has risen every year and at an increasing pace, reaching 5.3 per cent of all pupils in 2025 (the year which the government used as a starting point for its modelling in estimating the impact of the proposed reforms).
The IfG report argues that the number of EHCPs is now rising faster than the government expected, and will continue to do so, as the impending tightening of eligibility creates a ‘use it before you lose it’ dynamic. The IfG suggests that even if growth in EHCPs simply continues at the average rate seen between 2022 and 2026 – rather than accelerating further, as it has consistently done over that period – almost one in 10 pupils would be receiving an EHCP by 2030 (9.2 per cent), compared to 7.7 per cent under the government’s modelling. As a result the financial assumptions of the reforms would be put in doubt, and SEND pressures could absorb around two-thirds of schools’ funding uplift over this parliament. The IfG is calling on the government to review its timetable for reducing the system’s reliance on EHCPs, saying that if ministers no longer believe that timetable is achievable, they should either revise it, or strengthen the reforms needed to deliver it. Otherwise, they risk basing both their reforms and spending plans on assumptions that the system cannot deliver, the report says.
Commenting, Mark Franks, director of welfare at the Nuffield Foundation said: ‘The report’s findings underline the urgency of reforming the SEND system to make it more effective, fair and sustainable, as pressures on schools and the public finances continue to mount. While there is broad agreement that the current system is under strain, uncertainty and concern remain about whether future levels of investment and the nature of reform will be sufficient to provide high-quality support for all children and young people.’
A DfE spokesperson said: ‘The figures in this report are speculative and there is no evidence that proposed reforms are driving additional EHCP demand. We inherited a SEND system with record numbers of EHCPs and families waiting months for support. We are already investing to change that, backing schools to improve inclusion, widening access to specialists and rolling out training for every teacher to better support children before needs escalate.’
The report also suggests that on most metrics the SEND system is ‘moving in the wrong direction’, with fewer than half of pupils with SEND saying they enjoy school and the average secondary pupil with an EHCP missing nearly a day of school every week. Elsewhere it sets out the IfG’s verdict on the government’s goals on attainment and absence, the teacher workforce, schools funding, and the structure of the school system – read the full findings at:
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/performance-tracker-2026/schools