A new study from the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) is warning that the government’s plans for free childcare could struggle unless growth in early years staffing is reinvigorated.
In September 2025, the free childcare entitlement extended from 15 to 30 hours for eligible working families in England with children aged between nine months and three years. The Department for Education (DfE) had estimated the early years workforce would have to increase by 35,000 staff between December 2023 and September 2025 to meet the needs of the expanded entitlement.
Analysis in the NFER’s Early Years Workforce in England Annual Report 2026, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, reveals that despite rising by nearly 20,000 between 2023 and 2024, an estimate from provider survey data suggests that the early years workforce then increased by just 600 between 2024 and 2025. The report does note that, as the figures used in the analysis only go up to July 2025, it is possible that a further recruitment surge over the summer may have considerably closed this gap. (There is also some uncertainty associated with the estimated staff numbers since they are from a large-scale survey rather than a census.)
The report also emphasises evidence showing a strong link between higher qualification levels among early years staff, and the quality of provision and children’s outcomes. The authors’ note that the government’s ‘Best Start in Life’ strategy commits to creating clear career pathways and training routes, to help early years educators progress and achieve higher level qualifications. However, the proportion of staff qualified to level 4 or above (higher education) remains relatively low at just a quarter of the workforce. A significant minority hold level 2 qualifications (GCSE equivalents) or below, including 15 per cent of staff in school-based settings, 20 per cent in group-based providers, and 24 per cent of childminders.
Analysis also finds that early years pay is low compared to otherwise similar workers, especially for those early years staff who are more highly qualified. The NFER found that early years staff consistently earn around 30 per cent less than otherwise similar workers. The relative pay gap for higher qualified staff is larger than average and has grown in recent years, from 34 per cent in 2021/22 and 2023/24 to 39 per cent in 2024/25. However, they also found that early years work offers higher levels of workplace representation, and staff report higher levels of wellbeing. Early years workers are more likely than similar workers to agree that their managers are ‘good’ or ‘very good’ at involving employees in workplace decision-making (61 per cent compared to 53 per cent). The data shows that early years workers have lower levels of anxiety, higher levels of life satisfaction, and are more likely to feel that what they do in their life is worthwhile compared to similar workers. These differences are also increasing over time, the analysis suggests.
Jack Worth, education workforce lead at the NFER, and one of the report’s authors, said: ‘It is important to acknowledge that meeting recruitment needs isn’t just about hitting the targets. To ensure that children receive the best start in life, more must be done to encourage those with higher levels of qualifications to enter the sector and stay, and provide opportunities for all staff to progress their careers.’
Neil Leitch, CEO of the Early Years Alliance – the largest early years membership organisation in England – commented: ‘It comes as no surprise that early years recruitment has stalled, given the persistently low rates of pay and lack of meaningful investment into the sector. Equally concerning, however, is the ongoing challenge of retaining experienced staff, and we’re clear that without improved pay, conditions and progression opportunities, many skilled educators will continue to leave the sector altogether. If we are to have any hope of establishing the early years as a viable long-term profession with genuine career pathways, and building and sustaining a stable workforce, the government must address both issues – and fast.’